India is expected to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025, a development that could boost agriculture and economic growth. The government shared the forecast on Tuesday, raising optimism for Asia’s third-largest economy, which relies heavily on farming.
Monsoon rains deliver nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. These rains are essential for watering crops and refilling reservoirs. Since almost half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation, the June-to-September rains play a critical role in crop production.
As a result, stronger monsoon rains may help reduce food prices. This could keep inflation within the central bank’s target range. Moreover, good rainfall would support rice exports, as India remains the world’s largest exporter of the staple grain.
M. Ravichandran, Secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, shared the forecast during a press conference. He stated that rainfall is expected to reach 105% of the long-term average. Typically, the monsoon begins around June 1 in Kerala and retreats by mid-September.
The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. That average stands at 87 centimeters (35 inches). Rainfall above this range qualifies as above average.
According to the forecast, most regions across India will likely see strong rainfall. However, some areas may receive below-average rains. These include parts of northwest India, northeast India, and the southern Peninsular region.
Importantly, the El Niño weather phenomenon is not expected to affect this year’s monsoon. El Niño often weakens monsoon rains, but this risk appears low for 2025. Overall, the outlook for the monsoon season is positive, offering hope for rural incomes and economic stability.
