As the summer holidays draw to a close, inbound airfares to the UAE have nearly doubled, driven by the annual back-to-school rush.
With many expatriate and national families returning to the country in mid-August, the demand for flights has skyrocketed, leading to steep increases in ticket prices.
Most UAE schools are set to reopen around August 26, prompting families to plan their return a few days in advance. Travel agents in Dubai report significant price hikes across various routes, especially those connecting the Middle East, Asia, and Europe to the UAE. The Indian subcontinent, in particular, sees the most dramatic fare increases, with prices on some routes more than doubling.
Demand Outpaces Supply
Rashida Zahid, Vice-President of Operations at Musafir.com, explained that the surge in UAE-bound airfares is primarily driven by expatriate families returning for the new academic year. “The increased demand and limited flight availability during peak travel periods inevitably drive up ticket prices,” she said. “Airlines often adjust fares to accommodate higher demand, resulting in significant price hikes.”
The alignment of school holidays in various countries with the UAE’s academic calendar exacerbates the travel rush. Zahid noted that while airfares tend to rise across multiple regions during peak travel periods, the Indian subcontinent experiences the most substantial increases due to the high volume of returning expatriates.
Historical Peak Season
TP Sudheesh, General Manager at Deira Travel and Tourist Agency, highlighted that the period from August 15 to early September has historically been a peak travel season. “There is a huge variation in supply and demand during this season. Hence, airfares go up during this period. All carriers cannot accommodate the demand,” he said. Sudheesh added that this is the longest peak travel season compared to others like the Eid or Christmas holidays.
Routes to India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka see particularly high demand, along with significant increases in fares for flights from African countries.
Gradual Decline in Airfares Expected
While the high airfares are expected to persist through the peak travel period, prices are anticipated to drop gradually in September. Sudheesh noted that airfares will not decrease overnight but will decline slowly over a week or so as the back-to-school rush subsides. Zahid echoed this sentiment, predicting a significant drop in prices from the first week of September onwards.
